San Francisco

San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: Fall 2023

  • Charles Jacob
  • 10/12/23

This fall 2023, our team of San Francisco real estate agents has observed significant shifts in the local property market—both on a wide economic scale and down “in the trenches” working with SF home buyers and sellers. From soaring interest rates to a volatile stock market, we’re here to break down what these changes mean for you.


The San Francisco real estate market, which is typically brisk this time of year, has presented new challenges this fall. Mortgage interest rates have continued their upward trajectory since October kicked off, and the stock market has been nothing short of a rollercoaster.

An added layer of complexity comes from the market’s sensitivity to expected Federal Reserve actions, often overshadowing their response to actual economic indicators. (Good jobs report? Batten down the hatches for a rate hike!) These fluctuations have led to an economic landscape that’s a bit hard to predict right now.


If you’re considering a change in living arrangements—whether buying a home in San Francisco, selling a home in San Francisco, or both—these fluctuating interest rates could mean higher mortgage payments for your next property. But there is some upside in the market; the number of new listings in San Francisco skyrocketed in September, reaching a year-to-date high for 2023. This surge could result in a sizable increase in Q4 home sales, particularly for houses, which are currently more in demand than condos.

When it comes to selling properties, well-priced homes in desirable locations are still drawing healthy attention. We’ve used our expertise as top San Francisco listing agents to secure sales at prices that not only meet but exceed our sellers’ expectations. Forged and fine-tuned over the last two decades—and all their ups and downs—our unique pricing and preparation strategies at Charles Jacob / Compass Real Estate are particularly valuable to San Francisco home sellers in softer markets.


Looking ahead, the California Association of Realtors® has provided a decently optimistic forecast for 2024. Their outlook includes a 23% increase in existing single-family home sales and a 6.2% rise in the median home price throughout the state. However, the housing supply is projected to remain below normal, heightening competition, especially with projected 6% mortgage rates by the CAR. Given the higher price tag of San Francisco real estate and the heavy impact of interest rates on tech stocks and local buyers’ budgets, these rates remain a key factor in our market.


While houses are currently more in demand than condos, there’s another layer of complexity within the luxury condo market, which has been experiencing a deeper cooling trend. According to a recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle, luxury condos like One Steuart Lane are seeing a significant drop in sales. Over half of the 120 condos at One Steuart Lane remain vacant, and this trend is echoed in other luxury condo buildings across the city.

The slowdown is attributed to higher interest rates and the challenges San Francisco is facing post-pandemic. These factors have led both foreign and local buyers to pause their investments. However, this cooling trend could be an opportunity for savvy buyers. With waning demand and an oversupply of luxury condos, the market is shifting in favor of buyers, making it an ideal time to invest in a luxury condo.

The Savvy Approach to Luxury Real Estate

In the San Francisco luxury real estate market, clients are savvy and focused on long-term investments. This focus is particularly evident when we look at the market’s division into two groups: those dependent on interest rates and those who aren’t. The latter group is especially active today, seizing opportunities to negotiate and make strategic moves amid market uncertainty.

Diversification continues to be a key strategy. Many of our San Francisco Bay Area clients are wisely expanding their real estate holdings, especially when there’s a drop in property prices. This approach is supported by the current market stability, which is partly due to a decrease in listing inventory. In the case of luxury condos, which saw a burst of new supply around 2017-2019, buyers may find that they have the upper hand. For other properties, especially single-family homes in San Francisco, scarcity is keeping prices and competition afloat even as demand is challenged by factors like mortgage rates and stock volatility.


Understanding the San Francisco real estate market can be daunting, especially with its current volatility. Whether you’re ready to make a move or just contemplating future plans, we’re always happy to connect for a free, no-pressure consultation to guide you through your options.

That wraps up our comprehensive guide to the fall 2023 San Francisco real estate market! When you’re ready to discuss your San Francisco real estate goals, we’re just a phone call or an email away. Click here to contact us.

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